The Push for Electric Cars -- the biggest folly of all

The Wall Street Journal had an excellent  article this week on the future of electric cars without massive subsidies .  Basically it noted that, without subsidies, such cars are simply not competitive with gas-powered vehicles.  It also noted the results when subsidies are eliminated,  Thus:

1.  When Hong Kong eliminated subsidies, Tesla sales in the following quarter fell to Zero.

2.  In Georgia, electric vehicle sales plummeted 80% the month after a $5,000 tax credit was repealed.

In order to become competitive with gasoline engines, electric battery costs will have to decline substantially and gasoline prices would have to increase substantially.  Battery costs have decreased substantially -- from $1,000 per kilowatt hour in 2010 to $273 per kwh in 2016 -- but they still have a long way to go to match the advantage of gasoline.  A typical electric battery adds $20,000 to the cost of a car. One article estimates that. at the current battery cost of $270 per kwh, oil would have to cost more than $300 per barrel to make electric and gasoline equally attractive.

 I have always thought that one basic problem with the idea of electric cars is that a substantial portion of possible purchasers don't have garages in which to charge them.  I must admit that I haven't seen any literature on this, but it seems logical that electric cars will not be able to compete for a significant portion of the market.  I live in a 85 year old house with a garage that was built for Model -Ts.  Modern cars do not fit in it.  Many other people may use garages primarily for storage, and park cars in their driveways.  Many other American live in apartments -- 17% of the population.   Most of these are served by parking lots, and those in multi-story garages are unlikely to have access to electric plugs.  And many apartment dwellers in cities simply park on the street.   None of these people are candidates for electric car ownership.


An interesting blogpost this week discussed real world issues in electric vehicle driving -- for example that the range of electric cars is substantially reduced in cold weather.  Also, to maximize range, drivers really can't go over 60 mph.  Try doing this in Texas.