Showing posts with label Federal deficit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federal deficit. Show all posts

October 6, 2012

Medicare Is Too Good a Deal



I have had two experiences this week that suggest that the government is providing too much subsidy for Medicare. In one case, I received my 2013 plan materials from my Medicare Advantage plan. In the other, I had a medical episode that required extensive testing with high-technology equipment, and consultation with professional medical staff, for which I paid $20.

Under my Medicare Advantage plan, the amounts I pay for various services will actually be reduced. The maximum “out-of-pocket” amount that I will pay for all hospital and doctor services during the year is $3900 – a reduction of $1000 from this year’s $4900. For visits to my primary care physician, I now have a copayment of $5.00. Next year they will be free – no copayment. The cost of visits to specialists will be reduced from $35 to $20, and numerous other medical services will have a similar reduction.

In the other episode, I had to visit a hospital for a barium swallow test after a pill I swallowed went into my lungs rather than my esophagus. The test required a speech therapist to feed me various foods and watch the course of the foods through my throat on a very expensive looking x-ray machine. She will later write a report that will be sent to my specialist doctor. The process took 40 minutes, used expensive equipment, and included a detailed conversation with the speech therapist about what I could do to avoid further episodes. The hospital charge for the test was $180, there was an insurance discount (required by Medicare) of $80, the hospital billed Medicare for $80, and I paid $20.

These prices are ridiculous because I can easily afford to pay more.  It may be reasonable to provide highly discounted prices to low-income persons who really don’t have money to pay for medical care (many of whom would be on Medicaid), but any reasonably affluent person could afford to pay more than I paid above for important medical services. The problem is not just that I am getting away with a cheap price; it is that other people are subsidizing that price through their taxes. With a one trillion dollar annual deficit, in order to save me $1000 in my annual medical costs, the government will be forced to borrow money from China.

Subsidization by the government of such routine medical expenditures as doctor visits or lab tests subverts the purpose of insurance, which should be to protect against the costs of major medical events. Earlier in the year, I had a knee replacement operation, in which I spent three nights in the hospital. The hospital billed the government $108,000; Medicare disallowed $96,000, but paid $12,000 for the services provided to me. The initial bill obviously overstates the hospital’s costs, but the net amount seemed reasonable, if not a little bit less than what I had expected. The savings to me were substantial and an appropriate subject for insurance.

The price reductions imposed by Medicare also have unfortunate economic consequences. The marginal cost of a visit to my primary care physician is now zero. Now, anyone with a sniffle can go to the doctor for free, while previously, the minimal expenditure of five dollars would have dissuaded many people from bothering to go. I suspect there will be a substantial increase of patients in  doctors’ waiting rooms. This, of course, imposes a noneconomic cost in terms of waiting time that is probably the equivalent of the five dollar fee. But the fee is much more efficient as a market clearing mechanism.

There has been political discussion about means testing Medicare, with even President Obama supporting the concept. However, these discussions seem to have focused on increasing premiums for wealthier Americans. I suspect there would be more impact on Medicare expenditures if we means tested payments by the individual for medical services. A more affluent person might not be dissuaded from a doctor visit by a $20 co-pay, but might decide that $100 co-pay makes the visit not worth the expense. Whichever way it goes, there ultimately should be some form of means-testing.

October 3, 2012

A Clear Explanation of the Budget Deficit Problem


I received from a friend in California a link to a YouTube video posted by a retired IBM accountant. Since he actually focuses on the columns in the federal budget, it is very simple, but clear, with the conclusion that Congress can never close the budget deficit. It is worth watching.

May 22, 2012

Republicans Need to Focus on Size of Deficit

I have been concerned over the past several months that the Republicans are not adequately explaining the problem of the federal deficit. It is not just that the deficit exists, but that it is so enormous. While the deficit itself may not be the sole or most important issue (that is obviously the economy), it is of vital importance that Republicans clearly explain how large it is, compared to the federal budget, and what it will take to get it under control.

The Congressional Budget Office does an excellent job of issuing monthly reports on the federal budget, showing changes in revenue and expenses, and providing detailed information on the deficit. This month, it also issued a separate report showing that the federal deficit for the first seven months amounted to $721 billion.  The latest monthly report shows that, during the first seven months of the fiscal year, the deficit amounted to 34.25% of all federal expenditures. Thus, more than one third of all federal outlays were paid for with borrowed money.  During that time period, the US spent 52.1% more than it took in.

No country can continue indefinitely with these gaps.  Under current federal policies, the deficit will only increase and become an even greater proportion of gross national product.

When talking about this, I often ask people for their estimate of the size of the deficit, compared to federal expenditures. The general estimate is that it is about 20%, and they are shocked when I tell him that it is over one-third of all federal outlays. It seems to me that discussion of the deficit has a much greater impact when people understand how enormous it is, compared to federal expenditures. I believe the Republican should pound this home every time that they discuss the issue.

October 19, 2011

To Reduce the Deficit, Eliminate Amtrak


The Wall Street Journal has an excellent editorial today about the burden of Amtrak on the federal government and the deficit. While Amtrak announced a new record of 30 million passengers in the last fiscal year, it also ran up an operating loss of $560 million, which was paid by the federal government. As the WSJ stated:

“Amtrak announced last week to great media fanfare that the national train service carried a record 30 million passengers last year. A banner year on its 40th anniversary of government ownership, right? Well, no.
Here's what Amtrak didn't trumpet: It lost a near-record amount of money in fiscal 2011, with some $560 million from the feds required to cover its operating deficit.
This isn't an operation that can make up losses with greater volume. The curse of Amtrak is that its operating costs are so high on most routes, and its fares so inadequate to cover those costs, that even as more people hop on board it still can't cut its losses. It currently loses about $54.50 per passenger, and the Sunset Limited line between New Orleans and Los Angeles loses $390 per ticket, according to the House Transportation Committee. Since Richard Nixon nationalized passenger rail service in 1971, Amtrak hasn't made money in a single year.”
I noted last week that the deficit was so large – – 36% of the federal budget – – that the problem could not be solved by cutting around the edges. Rather, entire departments and agencies would have to go. Amtrak is a prime candidate for total elimination. Certainly, all routes outside the Northeast could be eliminated without any damage to the public interest. On those routes, Amtrak competes with airlines, who offer higher frequency and lower fares. Most of Amtrak's loss would be eliminated the cancellation of those routes.

In the Northeast, it is likely that Amtrak could approach breakeven with its high density routes. If not, it could be subsidized by the states through which it passes, rather than by the federal government. In fact, the House Transportation Committee is drafting legislation to privatize the Northeast corridor so that private industry could build high-speed rail.  In any event, there is no need for continued subsidization of  train service by the federal government.

October 15, 2011

Michelle Bachmann Agrees With My Analysis of the Deficit Problem


I doubt that Michelle Bachmann has read my blog, but her analysis of the deficit problem is close to mine.  At the Republican debate in New Hampshire on October 11, she echoed my theme of several recent posts by quantifying the deficit as a percent of the total budget.  This shows the size of the deficit compared to total expenditures, a relationship of which most Americans are unaware.

The transcript is as follows:

REP. BACHMAN: -- “Our government right now -- this is significant.  We are spending 40 percent more than what we take in. We all paid a lot of taxes this year.  We paid $2.2 trillion in taxes. That's a lot of money from all the American people.  The American government spent a hundred percent of that 2.2 trillion (dollars). But the travesty is they spent 1.5 trillion (dollars) more than that. That's the problem.  Every year, we are spending about 40 percent more than what we take in.

Our answer has to be that we cut back on the spending so we get to balance.  We can't do this because all --

MR. ROSE:  Will cutting back on the spending --

REP. BACHMANN:  -- all around us are young people that are going to be paying for this burden.  And their tax rates won't be our tax rates.  Their tax rates could come at some point, their overall effective burden -- I'm a federal tax lawyer; that's what I do for a living.  And my background is in economics.  Their tax rates some day in their peak earning years, Charlie, could be as much as 75 percent. Who's going to get out of bed in the morning to go to work, if they're paying 75 percent tax rates?  We've got to get our spending house in order and cut back on spending.”

Good work, Michelle.  Keep it up.  Maybe we can educate the American public.

October 7, 2011

Final FY 2011 Figures Confirm Enormity of Deficit

I have written twice in recent months about the enormous size of the federal deficit and how the political world talks about the deficit but never discussed its actual size.  The Congressional Budget Office has now updated its figures to the full fiscal year ended September 30, 2011, and has confirmed the enormity of the amount.  According to today's news reports, the deficit for the full fiscal year amounted to $1.3 billion.  The CBO report is available as a pdf on its website.  While the report gives the hard numbers, it fails to  provide the percentage figures that would place them completely in context.

The following table shows the basic numbers:

                                                              Fiscal 2011
                                                        (in billions of dollars)


                                                     Receipts                        2,302

                                                     Outlays                          3,600

                                                      Deficit                           1,298

Thus, the deficit as a percentage of outlays was 36.06% -- more that one/third of the federal budget was paid for by borrowing money.  Another way of looking at the problem is that we spent 56.4% more than our revenue.

Imagine a family spending $100,000 per year, when its income was $64,000.  Obviously, it would have to make substantial cuts in expense in order to survive.  The same goes for the federal government.  The current discussion of cuts of $1 or $2 trillion over ten years is only nibbling around the edges.  To achieve real reductions, entire programs and agencies wil have to be eliminated.

September 16, 2011

Finally, a Clear Explanation on the Solyndra Loan

The Wall Street Journal has an excellent article today explaining exactly what Solyndra made, and what it did with the federal loan of $535 million.  The title of the article – – "The Loan Was Solyndra's Undoing" – – does not seem quite accurate.  According to the article, Solyndra was in difficulty before the loan, but use the proceeds of the loan to quintuple its manufacturing capacity,  This decision drove it over the cliff.

According to the article, Solyndra used a module of cylindrical tubes to manufacture solar power, while other manufacturers use photovoltaic silicon panels. Solyndra's problem was that its process produced much higher costs than the competing system. Solyndra's tubes cost $4.00 per watt of power to produce, while it could only sell each watt for $3.24.  At the same time, its Chinese competitors were producing silicon panels at less than a quarter of Solyndra's costs, and today produce panels at $.75 per watt.

Solyndra had a plant with an annual capacity of 110 MW, but actually produced only 65 MW in 2010.  However, it used the loan to build a new factory capable of producing 500 MW per year.  It could never make use of the additional capacity because it was simply not competitive with the makers of solar panels.  At least, the company has some physical assets – the factory – that can be sold in bankruptcy, and the government may ultimately get some of its money back.

The Wall Street Journal has another article today reporting that as recently as May, 2011, the company told the government that it was financially healthy.  It also reports the government's excuse for the company's failure – the Department of Energy says that the Chinese suddenly flooded the market with lower cost solar panels.  Based on the other article, this appears to be nonsense.  Solyndra made a different type of solar product, that was higher cost than the Chinese to start with, and there was no way it could match later price reductions.  It's problems were much more fundamental than sudden Chinese competition.

August 30, 2011

CBO Updates Deficit Data -- Deficit still over 35% of Total Expenses

The Congressional Budget Office  this week updated the its estimates for the federal deficit for the current fiscal year and projected estimates for several years into the future.  The forecast is suspect, however, because it assumes that cost savings deals that resulted from the budget deficit limit negotiations will actually occur and that the Bush tax cuts will expires as required by current law.  They have already been extended once and will probably be extended again -- the last thing we want to do in a faltering economy is to raise taxes.


The forecast for this fiscal year shows minor changes.  The deficit will continue to be 35.7% of total expenditures -- thus, over one/third of the federal budget is funded by the issuance of debt.  The federal government  continues to spend 55.5% more that than it receives from taxes and other sources of revenue.


As reported in the Wall Street Journal, "CBO said that this year's deficit—at 8.5% of GDP—will be larger by that metric than all but two other years in the past 65, exceeded only by 2009 (10%) and 2010 (8.9%.) Spending, at 23.8% of GDP this year, is significantly higher than the historical averages. Revenues are significantly lower at 15.3% of GDP this year."